*****G-Man's Road To The Super Bowl Plays*****

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Washington +6 over Eagles. 20 units
They are 1-1 headsup this year.
There is a big factor to consider for this game based on the prior two played.
I game one at Philly , the Commanders lost 26-18. Low scoring...win margin of 8 points.
Hurts and Barkley both played the entire game.

In game two. Hurts was out and Washington won in Washington 36-33.
Philly QB was Pickett and he wasnt much - going 14/23 for 143 yds. Barkley was solid with 26 carries for 150 yds.

The main reason thet Philly scored 33 points was because the Commanders had five (5) turnovers. Otherwise, the game wasn't close.

What is important is that the second game was more revaling of what Daniles can do with a second chance.
He was 24/39 for 258 yds passing with five(50 Touschdowns! He had 2 ints and the Commanders had 3 other turnovers.

Here is another factor to know. In game one, Philly was favored by 4.5. In game two - theywere favored gain by 4 points.
That alone tells me thet this 6 point line is completely geared towards public perception being sky high on Philly.
Location isnt enough for a change to increase the line to 6 when both prior gamess were lined at 4- 4.5 which included the game in Philly with both Hurts and Barkley starting!
I had Philly and Buffalo as my Super Bowl teams. But now with this head-to-head matchup for a third time with Washington, if the Commanders can stop the turnovers, we could see a Wild Card team in the Super Bowl!
I like the points!

Buffalo +2. over KC. 25 units
Both teams are the same as when they played earlier in the season on Nov 17th.
Last yeat the same January matchup was at KC with a 2.5 line. For this game KC is favored by 2.
IN last year's gane KC ran the ball to victory. mahomes awas avarage at best going 17/23 for 215 yds.
FWIW this yeat the Chiefs are being out gamined in all threee important categories this year.
Per Play - They allow more yds rush then they produce, More yds per play than they produce and more yds per pass completion than they produce. One year ago they were better.
In those same categories, the Bill are way more effective.
Buffalo runs the ball for 5.8 yds while only allowing 3.5, Per play they are 7.0 to 5.5 and per pass they are 8.44 to 6.7.
All of the numbers are better than all of KC's.

LAST WEEK the Chiefs were horrible vs Houston.

The Chiefs had only 50 yds rushing, 162 yds passing and only 14 first downs. 3 of the first downs were on fake roughing calls for 15 yds. They only put up 23 points! Those stats are usually from a team that loses the game.. KC was out yarded all day.

The Bills were far better against a better team with the Ravens - than what KC faced withHouston, which coud never be confused with a Corvette. ("My Couisn Vinny") LOL
No third trip to the "Big Dance" for KC this time.
 

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I with you on both. I look at props and Bills/Chiefs both totals at 3 1/2 first quarter are odd with Allen/Mahomes QB? Another prop has Allen rushing total high. Do want to see Chiefs watching not playing in SB 🚬

Good luck 🥂🥂
 

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I with you on both. I look at props and Bills/Chiefs both totals at 3 1/2 first quarter are odd with Allen/Mahomes QB? Another prop has Allen rushing total high. Do want to see Chiefs watching not playing in SB 🚬

Good luck 🥂🥂
Mahome and KC stats have declined over the years. This year is the worst sincd he's been the starter. Explained in my writeup.
Theyre going to struggle from now on. Most of the compeetitoin is improving. Theyre NOT!
 

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Mahome and KC stats have declined over the years. This year is the worst sincd he's been the starter. Explained in my writeup.
Theyre going to struggle from now on. Most of the compeetitoin is improving. Theyre NOT!
Maybe this yr? But being they’re doing what they’re doing? They're going to erase Brady from the books. He’s pretty much already solidified GOAT
 

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Maybe this yr? But being they’re doing what they’re doing? They're going to erase Brady from the books. He’s pretty much already solidified GOAT
No one will erase Brady.
No mistake Mahomes is great.
He's good - but Brady and the years are dominating.
If Mahomes plays two decades then we can talk about who is the GOAT.

Daniles is alredy better in his rookie year making it to the Conference Championship game in his first year as a rookie.
I just learned today that, Only Shawn King, Flacco, Big Ben. Sanchez and Purdy have done it befiore.
Also - when winning his prior diviomal playoff game by double digits (45-31), QB's are 5-0 SUATS in the Championship game.

Appreciate the feedback.
BOL
 

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No one will erase Brady.
No mistake Mahomes is great.
He's good - but Brady and the years are dominating.
If Mahomes plays two decades then we can talk about who is the GOAT.

Daniles is alredy better in his rookie year making it to the Conference Championship game in his first year as a rookie.
I just learned today that, Only Shawn King, Flacco, Big Ben. Sanchez and Purdy have done it befiore.
Also - when winning his prior diviomal playoff game by double digits (45-31), QB's are 5-0 SUATS in the Championship game.

Appreciate the feedback.
BOL
🔥🔥🔥
 

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The line is 6 because it is a winner take all game. The other 2 were not. Of course the line would be higher unless Washington surged late and Philly was bad.
BTW everything I have seen Washington is a HUGE public dog.

No super strong opinion on who covers other than I would be surprised if both road teams won SU.
 

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The line is 6 because it is a winner take all game. The other 2 were not. Of course the line would be higher unless Washington surged late and Philly was bad.
BTW everything I have seen Washington is a HUGE public dog.

No super strong opinion on who covers other than I would be surprised if both road teams won SU.
No line is simply 6 because its a winner take all game? How could you even say that? Then why isn't it 6 with Buffalo? Is it a winner take all game?
No other game is a winner take all game/.. Thats only when the SB or a National Championship game is the final game?

You said from what you've seen the public is on Wash??? You may want to look around then,
The public is NOT on the Commanders. Just check the percentages on the sister site BMR. Its 59%KC and 64% Philly.

Maybe followers here are on them with my picks - which I doubt, - but the reason you rattled off ,doesn't hold water.

IF The Public was on Wash, the line would moved against them. According to the "Public Perception" - Vegas moves the line to balance the action???? It opened at 4.5 and went to 6,
The action is on the Eagles.

In addition, both teams won their home games. The line was Philly -4 in Philly... and Philly -4 in Washington.

Lastly, these two teams are a ride around the block apart...by location.

Explain why after the Commanders rolled up 33 points on the Eagles in the 2nd reg season game which was on mov, 17 why they are a bigger dog now.

If anything, Wash has beat better teams than what Philly did in this game to get here.
Wash beat NFC #1 seed Champ Detroit in Detroit! ? and Tampa in Tampa?
Tampa beat Detroit and Green Bay.

Tampa beat Detroit and if Philly did that, they would be a bigger favorite. But Philly only had to beat GB and the Rams. Both of which lost to Detroit.

The line is set on where the public moved it to. Which can only indicate that Vegas has made the line bigger on Washington to take advantage of the public believers like you do, that road teams wont win these road game.s

FWIW, the Commander are also playing their 4 th straight road game...LOL another factor that has the public on Philly...

Fading any team that went into Detroit with a QB as good as Daniels and winning SU as an 8 point DOG made the line to keep the public on Philly - but this line should have been 8 if the Eagles were as good as Detroit which theyre NOT. They have it under a TD just for that reason.
The masses were on Detroit also when the Commanders stopped by in the Dome.

Just wonder why you always have an opinion against my oplays but you never post a bet here on who you are betting on???

What dont you tell me why Washington wont win or Buffalo?
Show some factors?
Some of you guys do this but cant post a play with why?

Regardless BOL on who ever you bet on.
 
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I'm not playing anything why would I post a play?
I am picky in the playoffs. Plenty of other sports and options to bet.
AN has 68% on Washington.
Line moving up doesn't necessarily mean people are on Washington just the bigger bets or could be injuries.
KC probably isn't 6 because Buffalo beat them and they have a track record while this is Washingtons first year with this team
Also Washington has a rookie QB
Eagles were smashing Washington 2nd game until the injury.

I don't "always" have an opinion against your play. I rarely post here. I have info theat sometimes supports or goes against a play. Wouldn't be surprised if you win both. All I am saying is I just cannot see both road teams win SU.
 

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I'm not playing anything why would I post a play?
I am picky in the playoffs. Plenty of other sports and options to bet.
AN has 68% on Washington.
Line moving up doesn't necessarily mean people are on Washington just the bigger bets or could be injuries.
KC probably isn't 6 because Buffalo beat them and they have a track record while this is Washingtons first year with this team
Also Washington has a rookie QB

Eagles were smashing Washington 2nd game until the injury.

I don't "always" have an opinion against your play. I rarely post here. I have info theat sometimes supports or goes against a play. Wouldn't be surprised if you win both. All I am saying is I just cannot see both road teams win SU.
Wash beat Philly also!
All of a sudden now your "6 line" logic, has vanished?

Rookie QB now gets more points after splittiing the two games? Nonsense.
Re-Read about Rookie QB's above. Daniels is better than Mohomes.

Lines are based only on public perception and always move to be in favor of Vagas vs the masses..
As far as your sourse for percentages believe them if you want.
Line moves tell the truth. The line opend at 4.5 ans went to 6. Money is on The home teams - period.


Have a good day.
 

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They were getting smashed before the QB got inured that win doesn't mean as much as you think. Big drop off between Hurts and Pickett in the offense they run.
Line moved early on LIons too. Line movement especially in the NFL doesn't mean much.

Very interest games though. Can Allen and the Bills finally get passed Mahomes. Allens Legacy is basically on the line. Can a rookie finally make the SB?

Also home favorites of less than 3 in the CC are 3-1 ats since 1980

BTW I am rooting for both team you are taking so I hop they win.
GL
 

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They were getting smashed before the QB got inured that win doesn't mean as much as you think. Big drop off between Hurts and Pickett in the offense they run.
Line moved early on LIons too. Line movement especially in the NFL doesn't mean much.

Very interest games though. Can Allen and the Bills finally get passed Mahomes. Allens Legacy is basically on the line. Can a rookie finally make the SB?

Also home favorites of less than 3 in the CC are 3-1 ats since 1980

BTW I am rooting for both team you are taking so I hop they win.
GL
If youre referring to the Wash 36-33 point win over Philly. It means much more than the 26-18 loss to pPhilly, because the second time Daniels had a chance against that vaunted philly defense he put up 36 points in spite of turning the ball over FIVE times. Never discount any win unless is was a team that won getting 5 turnovers.
When Hurts played in the 26-18 game he put up less points than the season average was all year. Expect the same in this game.
Again, Phillly never played Detroit!
 
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The KC CHIEFS are winning the SUPER BOWL !!!!!

If I were u I’d squash that huge bills bet for 25 units

And put 25 units on kc at “” plus 225 “” to win it all (+56.25u)

Mahomes is 17-1 in domes ,I’m looking forward to him going 18-1 !!!!!

U can throw all the stats out the window

kc doesn’t care how they win , pretty !!!! or ugly !!!!

They simply know “” how to win “” better than anyone , the bills are done !!!!!
 

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The KC CHIEFS are winning the SUPER BOWL !!!!!

If I were u I’d squash that huge bills bet for 25 units

And put 25 units on kc at “” plus 225 “” to win it all (+56.25u)

Mahomes is 17-1 in domes ,I’m looking forward to him going 18-1 !!!!!

U can throw all the stats out the window

kc doesn’t care how they win , pretty !!!! or ugly !!!!

They simply know “” how to win “” better than anyone , the bills are done !!!!!
Where are your bets posted at for 25K on the Chiefs.
In fact why dont you start your own thread and post that big bet? ?

Do a full writeup with things you think are why you bet them in YOUR OWN thread since you came into my thread to get attention. ?

What an asshole...\You sound like a 15 year old groupie like so many others here...LOL

WELL? Go Ahead! MAKE MY DAY!
 
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25 units on buffalo ? That’s a crazy unit size and it’s the wrong side

Your messing with the wrong animal , the chiefs are

ABOVE EVERYONE !
 

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No line is simply 6 because its a winner take all game? How could you even say that? Then why isn't it 6 with Buffalo? Is it a winner take all game?
No other game is a winner take all game/.. Thats only when the SB or a National Championship game is the final game?

You said from what you've seen the public is on Wash??? You may want to look around then,
The public is NOT on the Commanders. Just check the percentages on the sister site BMR. Its 59%KC and 64% Philly.

Maybe followers here are on them with my picks - which I doubt, - but the reason you rattled off ,doesn't hold water.

IF The Public was on Wash, the line would moved against them. According to the "Public Perception" - Vegas moves the line to balance the action???? It opened at 4.5 and went to 6,
The action is on the Eagles.

In addition, both teams won their home games. The line was Philly -4 in Philly... and Philly -4 in Washington.

Lastly, these two teams are a ride around the block apart...by location.

Explain why after the Commanders rolled up 33 points on the Eagles in the 2nd reg season game which was on mov, 17 why they are a bigger dog now.

If anything, Wash has beat better teams than what Philly did in this game to get here.
Wash beat NFC #1 seed Champ Detroit in Detroit! ? and Tampa in Tampa?
Tampa beat Detroit and Green Bay.

Tampa beat Detroit and if Philly did that, they would be a bigger favorite. But Philly only had to beat GB and the Rams. Both of which lost to Detroit.

The line is set on where the public moved it to. Which can only indicate that Vegas has made the line bigger on Washington to take advantage of the public believers like you do, that road teams wont win these road game.s

FWIW, the Commander are also playing their 4 th straight road game...LOL another factor that has the public on Philly...

Fading any team that went into Detroit with a QB as good as Daniels and winning SU as an 8 point DOG made the line to keep the public on Philly - but this line should have been 8 if the Eagles were as good as Detroit which theyre NOT. They have it under a TD just for that reason.
The masses were on Detroit also when the Commanders stopped by in the Dome.

Just wonder why you always have an opinion against my oplays but you never post a bet here on who you are betting on???

What dont you tell me why Washington wont win or Buffalo?
Show some factors?
Some of you guys do this but cant post a play with why?

Regardless BOL on who ever you bet on.
"After early money coming in on the Eagles at -5, the public has latched onto Jayden Daniels and the Commanders hype. Around two-thirds of bets and a majority of handle [are] now on Washington between +5.5 and +6.5."

-ESPNBET
 

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What's your thoughts on the Skins and Iggles total. I don't see many posts about both games totals.
 

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I don’t get why people argue with you lol. Great record G. Followed you all throughout MLB WS. $$
Especially when Im simoply posting the points that I capped that make sense.
Some just need the attention, Some just troll to shit up a thread and most are losers in every sport and they dont post plays.

Much appreciated obsfgd.
Thanks.
 

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